Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have renewed concerns about disruptions to global oil and gas supplies — and revived a familiar question: can energy security crises accelerate the transition to clean energy? This issue was recently discussed by Anastasia Pavlenko, PhD candidate at the Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy at Central European University (CEU), and Professor Aleh Cherp in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. Their recent research on Europe’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine provides insights into how geopolitical shocks influence decarbonisation.
The study finds that energy crises can affect the transition through several mechanisms — some that accelerate it and others that slow it down.
Higher fossil-fuel prices can make renewables more competitive. During the European energy crisis of 2021–2023, elevated electricity prices contributed to rapid growth in rooftop solar installations. Geopolitical shocks can also strengthen political commitment to renewables. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU raised renewable targets under the REPowerEU plan and framed clean energy as a matter of energy security.
At the same time, crises often lead governments to prioritize consumer protection. During the energy crisis, EU fossil-fuel subsidies nearly doubled as governments shielded households and businesses from rising costs, while financial support for renewables declined.
Structural barriers also remain significant. Permitting delays, land-use conflicts, and grid constraints continue to slow wind deployment in Europe despite stronger policy targets.
Crises can accelerate technologies that are already cheap and easy to scale, but the overall pace of the transition depends on deeper structural factors such as infrastructure, institutions, and social acceptance, conclude the researchers.
Open-access article: Pavlenko, A. & Cherp, A. 2026. Do Energy Security Crises Accelerate Decarbonisation? The Case of REPowerEU. Energies 19(1), 200. https://doi.org/10.3390/en19010200
The Wall Street Journal article:
Photo credit Anastasia Pavlenko